国际短期资本流入:影响因素及政策建议

The Effect Analysis About Inflow of Short-term International Capital In China

影响我国国际短期资本流入的因素有利率差异、汇率预期、证券资产价格和宏观经济预期等。为了防范国际短期资本过度流入可能带来的冲击,必须建立一个有效的协调与控制机制,包括完善金融市场体系,谨慎配合人民币汇率与资本项目的开放程度,建立和完善预警指标体系。

The article discusses that the short-term international capital movements is influenced by the difference of interest rates of two countries,securities prices, exchange rate expectation and macroeconomic expectation.In order to prevent the possible negative impact due to excessive inflow of short-term international capital,an effective coordination and control system must be erected,including an improved financial market system,which adapts cautiously to the exchange rate of RMB and the openness level of capital projects,and the establishment and improvement of an alarm indexes system.