交叉口延误的概率统计模型

Statistical Model for Delay of Intersection

根据交叉口延误具有随机性的特征,建立了交叉口延误的概率统计模型,同时考虑有初始排队存在情况下对模型进行修正,给出了通用性算式.对该模型进行了实用性分析,说明模型的有效性和实用效率.在算例分析中,对比了该模型与美国道路通行能力手册(HCM)中给出的模型的计算结果,并与实测数据进行了比较,初步得出该模型计算结果更为接近实测数据的结论.

Estalish the statistical model for delay of intersection according to the randomness of delay of intersection and the initial queue influence is considered to model intersection delay. At the same time the general equation is offered. Analyze the practicability is that this model and illustrate its availability. The conclution is that this model is preferable by comparing the result of this model and the ＂Highway Capacity Manual＂ of the United States.