税收收入Granger因果和协整关系检验

Granger Cause and Cointegration Test on China's Tax Revenue

近几年,我国税收收入高速增长,2004年的增速更是高达25.7%,因而,我国税收收入的这种高增长是否与经济发展相一致等问题引起了各方关注,并且所持观点截然相反。本文则在定性分析的基础上通过应用计量方法证明了我国税收收入的增长不但没有脱离GDP,而且处于宏观经济的长期均衡关系之中,因而与经济发展也是协调的。

The tax revenue of China experiences a rapid increase in recent years and even went up by 25.7 % in 2004, so it is considerably concerned that whether such huge increase of the tax revenue is consistent with the economical development or not. In this paper, on the basis of qualitative analysis, I make use of econometric methods and prove that China＇s tax revenue has not deviated from GDP yet and still lies in the long term equilibrium relationship of the macro economy and therefore is in line with the economical development.