转型期资本投资、产业结构、市场化对中国就业效应的实证研究

Positive Research on the Effect of Capital Investment,Industrial Structure and Market Degree on Employment in China during the Transition

本文通过对投资、技术进步、市场化程度、产业结构变动、实际工资等因素对我国就业量的影响进行实证分析与检验的结果显示,90年代以来,资本投资增加、产业结构变动及实际工资上涨是拉动就业增加的主要因素,市场化程度提高抑制了就业增加。但随着时间的推移,投资、产业结构变动对就业的贡献度逐渐下降,工资增长对就业的拉动作用逐渐增加,市场化对就业的抑制作用逐渐减弱。

This paper analyzes the effects of investment, technology, market degree, industry structure and real wage on employment and concludes that with capital investment increasing, industry structure change and real wage jack-up are the main factors of employment increase, the increase of market degree restrains the employment growth. But as time goes by, the contribution of investment and industry structure change declines, and the effects of wage increase on employment growth increases and the restraining effect of market on the employment growth declines.