相对政府支出对人民币实际汇率的影响

Effect of Relative Government Expenditure on Real Exchange Rate of RMB

政府支出通过资源的退出渠道和消费的转移渠道影响实际汇率。本文首先讨论政府支出对实际汇率影响的模型,利用协整的方法对现实的数据进行了检验,证明了中美两国相对政府非贸易品人均支出、相对政府人均支出和人民币实际汇率之间存在长期的稳定关系,然后利用误差修正模型对这三者的均衡方程做了估计,并得到了中美两国相对政府非贸易品人均支出、相对政府人均支出通过资源退出渠道和消费转移渠道对人民币实际汇率影响的长期效果。

Government expenditures influence real exchange rates in terms of resource withdrawal and consumption transfer.This paper introduces a model of government expenditure on real exchange rate and tests actual data with cointegration.The results show that long term steady relationships among relative per capita government non-trade product expenditure,relative per capita government expenditure and real exchange rate of RMB between China and U.S. exist.Then we employ Vector Error Correction to estimate the equilibrium equation of the above three factors,and find the long term effects of relative per capita government non-trade product expenditure and relative per capita government expenditure on real exchange rate of RMB via resource withdrawal and consumption transfer.