近20年中国石油储量变化分析

Analysis of China's oil reserves growth in recent 20 years

20世纪80年代以来,中国的石油工业处于储、产量相对稳定的壮年期。从1984年到2004年,中国累计的探明地质储量和可采储量呈起伏不大的平稳升势。其中,东部老油区仍是增储的主力,20年间地质储量年均增长4.6×108t,可采储量年均增量约为0.95×108t。西北区及海域地质储量年均增长分别为1.93×108t及1.11×108t,可采储量年均增量分别为0.396×108t及0.237×108t。从对未来经济发展更具影响的剩余可采储量看,中国石油剩余可采储量处于稳定的局面,20年期间平均年增量仅为0.1×108t。东部老油区已处于稳产阶段后期,其剩余可采储量已开始下降,但西北和海域的增加弥补了东部的下降。今后东部老油区与西北、海域之间的减、增平衡状况决定着全国石油剩余可采储量和产量的变化趋势。为保持中国石油产量的进一步提高,今后应加强东部挖潜,开拓西北及南海深水海域战略接替区。

Chinese petroleum industry has been in its robust years with relatively stable reserves and production since 1980s. The cumulative discovered oil reserves in place and recoverable reserves have been increasing smoothly and steadily from 1984 to 2004. The mature oil regions in the east are still the main contributor to oil reserves growth, with annual growth rates of oil in place and recoverable reserves averaging at 460 million tons and 95 million tons respectively in 20 years. The annual average growth of oil in place in Northwest China and offshore area are 193 million tons, and 111 million tons respectively, while the annual average growth of recoverable reserves are 39.6 million and 23.7million tons, respectively. In respect of the remaining reserves that have much larger influences on future economic development, China＇s remaining recoverable oil reserves are stable with an annual average growth of only 10 million tons in 20 years. The mature oil regions in the east have been in the late stage of production plateau, and their remaining recoverable oil reserves have begun to decline. However, recoverable oil reserves growth in Northwest China and offshore area have offset the decline in the mature oil regions in the east. The balance between the decline in the mature oil regions in the east and the growth in Northwest China and offshore area will determine the variation tendency of the national remaining recoverable reserves and production in the future. For the sake of maintaining the increasing trend of China＇s oil production, every means should be tried to bring all potentialities in the oil regions in the east into full play, and strategic succeeding regions both in NW China and deep water in South China Sea should further be developed.