青藏高原及铁路沿线地表温度变化趋势预测

Prediction of 0 cm Average Ground Surface Temperature Changes along Qinghai-Xizang Railway

青藏高原及其铁路沿线各站的年地表温度具有很好的互相关性,特别是各站10年滑动平均温度互相关系数达到0.92,以此建立了1961-2003年青藏铁路沿线平均地表温度序列.研究表明:青藏高原地表温度的升高是明显的,40年来升高1.1～1.5℃,其升温率为0.44℃/10a.大气CO2浓度的增加有利于青藏高原地表温度的升高,而太阳黑子周期长度(SCL)的变长则起相反作用.地表温度对大气CO2浓度和SCL的最好响应约滞后10年.若根据SCL的变化和IPCC第三次评估报告给出的新的温室气体排放情景SRES-B1预测,目前青藏高原地表温度的升温到2010年前后达到最强,此后可能会出现一个明显的降温过程,到2030年前后可能低于20世纪70～90年代的平均值.新一轮的升温开始于2040年代.若综合考虑CO2和SCL两者的共同影响预测,未来50年平均最低、最高和年地表温度与1971-2000年的平均比较,分别升高0.2,1.0和0.6℃.

The annual average 0 cm ground surface temperature of the stations along the Qinghai-Xizang railway correlated well to each other, especially the correlation of 10-year running mean average sequences of them, which is as high as 0.92. According to the results, the 0 cm average ground surface temperature series along the Qinghai-Xizang railway from 1961 to 2003 are constructed. The results show that： The 0 cm ground temperature increased about 1.1-1.5℃ during the past 40 years. The warming ratio of it is 0.44℃/10a. The effects of increased the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations （CO2） will be favorable to rise up the 0 cm ground temperature along the Qinghai-Xizang railway, but vice versa for sunspot cycle length （SCL） before year 2030. The response between 0 cm ground temperature and both the atmospheric CO2 concentrations and SCL have lagging about 10 years respectively. Based on the predictions of the future atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and SCL, the 0 cm ground temperature along the Qinghai-Xizang railway could be the warmest about in 2010, and then, it maybe lower than the average values of 1970＇s to 1990＇s, would decrease evidently till about 2030. The next round calefaction of the 0 cm ground temperature along the Qinghai-Xizang railway could begin in 2040. Considering the combined effects of both CO2 concentrations and SCL, the average minimum, the maximum and annual 0 cm ground temperatures along the Qinghai-Xizang railway would increase 0.2℃, 1.0℃ and 0.6℃ during the next 50 years.