2003年夏季中国地区降水的模拟研究

The Simulation of Precipitation in China in Summer of 2003

利用NCEP/NCAR大尺度再分析资料和区域气候模式RegCM-NCC,模拟了2003年夏季(6～8月)中国地区的降水和土壤含水量的分布.结果表明,RegCM-NCC较好地模拟出江淮地区的洪涝,但是对江南和华南发生的严重伏旱的模拟不明显;模式模拟的土壤含水量能够较好地反映不同地区的降水和洪涝状况,包括江淮地区的洪涝和江南、华南发生的严重伏旱;江淮地区前期高土壤含水量及后期强降水是该地区洪涝形成的重要因素.

The temporal and spatial variations of the precipitation and soil water content over China during June to August 2003 have been simulated and studied by using the RegCM-NCC model and the NCEP large-scale reanalysis data. The results show that the RegCM-NCC can successfully simulate the flood in Changjiang-Huai river region, but it can＇t represent the severe drought to the south of Changjiang River and South China in mid-summer well. The simulated soil water coutent can well reflect the precipitation and flood in the different regions including the flood in Changjiang-Huai river region and the severe drought to the south of Changjiang River and South China. The preceding high soil water content in Changjiang-Huai river region and following severe precipitation are main reason of forming flood in this region.