我国松花江流域和辽河流域降水的长期变化规律和未来趋势分析

LONG-TERM VARIATION PATTERN AND FUTURE TREND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE VALLEYS OF SONGHUAJIANG AND LIAOHE RIVERS

利用1881～2002年我国东北地区的月、季降水资料,采用历史曲线分析、功率谱分析、小波变换等方法,重点分析了松花江流域和辽河流域降水的长期变化规律.结果表明:松花江流域和辽河流域的降水都存在着明显的年代际变化,松花江流域降水以27～30年周期为主,辽河流域降水周期比松花江流域略长,大概为35～38年左右.根据降水自身演变规律及自回归方法预测的结果,估计未来5～10年,松花江流域仍将处于少雨期,辽河流域少雨期维持时间可能会稍长一些.

Study on the precipitation variation features for the valleys of the Songhuajiang and Liaohe rivers is undertaken by means of a trend analysis, power spectral method and wavelet transform in terms of the monthly and seasonal precipitation data from 1881 to 2002. Results indicate that a remarkable interdecadal variation is inherent in the precipitation of the target region, dominated by 27-30 （35-38） year periods for the rainfall in the Songhuajiang （Liaohe） valleys. Based on the evolution of the rainfall itself and auto-regression estimation it is inferred that the former （latter） will remain in a drier （a still longer rain-deficient） stage in 5-10 years to follow.