从历史和国际的视角看中国的经济增长

China’s Economic Growth in Historical and International Perspective

新增长经济学关于各种变量因素估计的研究结果表明，中国在实际经历经济快速增长之前，早已对这种快速增长寄予厚望。中国不处在热带地区，不属于内陆国，自然资源也不富裕，但是，中国是一个教育水平非常高的发展中国家。在20世纪50年代，中国经历过一段短时期的快速增长，然而，这种增长只是长期战乱后的经济恢复而已。直到1978年以后。中国把改革开放作为基本国策之后，持续的快速增长的时代才到来。经济开放带来经济增长的事实在跨国研究的发现中也得到了印证。但是，在中国，并非所有与GDP的高速增长相关的因素都很完美。比如，在法律规则的制度建设方面。中国还有大量工作要做。然而，1978年后，经济政策的改变促进了中国全要素生产率（TFP）的增长，而较高的全要素增长率和GDP的增长又反过来加速了资本的形成。中国经济的快速增长在很大程度上揭示了一个道理：经济开放政策促进了劳动生产率的提高。

Form the lessons of the estimates of the various equations of the “new growth economies”, China was well placed to grow rapidly long before it did in fact experience accelerated growth （China was not in the tropics, it was not landlocked, it was not rich in natural resources, and it had a fairly high level of education for a developing country）. China did grow rapidly for a brief period in the 1950s but this mainly involved recovery from the impact of long years of war and civil war. Sustained rapid growth did not begin until after fundamental changes in policy from 1978 on, changes such as the opening up of the economy that are also consistent with the findings of the cross-country growth equations. Not all of the variables normally associated with high GDP growth rates, however, were present in China. Key institutions such as the rule of law were largely absent, for example. Nevertheless the policy changes from 1978 on led to accelerated growth in total factor productivity （TFP） and this higher TFP and GDP growth in turn led to higher rates of capital formation （the share of gross capital formation in GDP in the reform period did not change much at all from that share in the pre-reform slow growth years）. Thus China＇s rapid economic growth experience is a story of major policy changes leading to accelerated productivity growth.