汇率制度与经济增长:来自亚洲发展中国家和欧洲发达国家的经验研究

Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Growth:Evidence from Developing Asian and Advanced European Economies

汇率制度选择在国际金融学和发展经济学领域都是一个重要课题。已有的理论文献和实证研究文献试图通过研究汇率制度选择对各种宏观经济变量和金融变量的影响来确定一种最优汇率制度，但这两组文献都未能提出令人信服的答案。本文运用雷因哈特和罗格夫（2004）提出的新的汇率制度分类方法，研究汇率制度选择与亚洲新兴发展中经济体和欧洲发展国家经济增长率之间的关系。我们发现了两个有趣的经济规律：第一，对发达的欧洲国家而言，更具弹性的汇率制度带来较高的经济增长率，而经济增长率的差异并非取决于汇率制度选择；第二，对于亚洲新兴经济体而言，更具弹性的汇率制度却会带来较低的经济增长率，并且会导致经济增长出现更大的波动性。我们的发现证实了最优汇率制度选择取决于经济发展水平这一结论。

The choice of exchange rate regime remains an important issue not only in international finance but also in development economics. While both the theoretical and empirical literatures have attempted to identify the most appropriate regime by examining the effect of regime choice on various c and financial variables, neither has been able to provide a conclusive answer. In this paper, we pay special attention to effects of development level and use the new classification of de facto exchange rate regime by Reinhart and Rogoff （2004） to empirically investigate the relationship between the choice of regime and the subsequent economic growth rate for developing and emerging Asian economies and advanced European countries. We discover two interesting regularities. First, for advanced European countries, more flexible exchange regimes are associated with higher growth rates, while variability of growth rate does not depend on the choice of exchange regime. Second, for developing and emerging Asian economies, more flexible exchange regimes are associated with lower growth rates and higher growth variability. Our findings suggest that an appropriate choice of exchange rate regime depends on development level.