盘锦地区电力负荷的季节性分析

SEASONAL ANALYSIS OF ELECTRIC LOAD IN PANJIN AREA

本文从盘锦地区１９８７－１９９３年电力负荷的原始资料入手，运用移动平均并加以改良的方法，从具有季节性变化的电力负荷系列中，分离出季节性分量，揭示了电力负荷发展变化的规律。文中分析了盘锦地区七年间电力负荷发展的自身特点，指出其循环变化的转折点，给出了未来近期负荷变化的趋势，为电力行业制定规划和组织生产提供了依据，对供电企业合理安排生产计划、适应市场经济带来启示。

Based on the original data of electric loads inPanjin area from 1987 to 1993, using the improved movingaverage method the seasonal components are separated fromthe series of electric loads which vary with seasons and thelaw for development and change of electric loads are revealed.In this paper the character of electric load development in recent seven y6ars at Panjin area is analyzed, andthe trend of electric load variation in the near future ispointed out.The analysis provides the basis for working outplan and planning production of electric power.