中国入境旅游客流的变化规律及市场需求影响因素的研究

The Research on Changing Law and AffectingFactors of Chinese Inbound Tourism Market Demand

本文的目标是通过建立计量经济学模型来分析影响中国入境旅游市场需求的各种主要因素,并评价其发生变化时可能对中国入境旅游市场需求产生的影响。文章利用"一般时特殊性(general-to-specific)"的分析方法,以中国17个主要入境旅游客源国家或地区为主要研究对象,得到的结论是:决定中国入境旅游需求的主要因素是入境游客在中国旅游的成本,旅游客源国本身的经济条件,与中国相竞争的旅游目的地旅游价格水平和入境旅游者的"自我宣传效应、旅游持续性行为"。文章最后对中国入境旅游者的需求弹性进行了深入分析,为中国旅游管理部门和旅游企业的决策提供了一个较为可靠的依据。

The objective of the article is to analyze all kinds of main factors that affect inbound tourism demand of China through econometric model. The analyzing method of ＇ general-to-specific＇ is used in the article, and taking seventeen main inbound tourism countries/resions of China as research object. Its conclusion is that the ma/n factors of deciding Chinese inbound tourism market demand are as follows： tourism cost of inbound tourists in China, the economic conditions in the countries/resions of inbound tourists, tourism price level of the countries/resions competing with China, the ＇ word of mouth＇ effect and the behavioral persistence of inbound tourists. The article deeply analyzes the demand dastic of Chinese inbound tourists at last, which will provide a more relialde basement for the decision-making of Chinese tourism administering department and corporation.