抑制美元中长期走势的因素

Restraints on the mid- and long-term USD trend

美国经济的增长速度大大高于欧洲和日本,而且美联储将继续推行逐步升息的货币政策,令2005年的美国利率水平大大高于欧洲和日本,美元汇率大幅回升。但从中长期看,影响美元走低的"双赤字"等结构性问题仍然存在。欧元区及日本经济的加快复苏,也将抑制美元升势。

The American economy is progressing at a far faster rate than that of Europe and Japan. Moreover, the Fed is maintaining its monetary policy of persistently raising the USD interest rate, which contributes to a much higher rate than that of Europe and Japan as well as a surging USD exchange rate. However, in the medium and long run, there still exist structural problems such as the “dual deficit” resulting in USD depreciation. Furthermore, accelerating economic resurgence in eurozone and Japan will also check any tendency for USD appreciation.