中国种植业产品贸易自由化对环境影响的计量经济分析

Econometric Analysis of Environmental Impacts of Crop Trade Liberalization

入世后,中国将根据WTO的要求对农业贸易相关政策进行调整和改革,这将改变国内农业生产,进而影响到农村生态环境。在此背景下,本文首先界定了种植业产品贸易自由化的涵义,并对其环境影响途径进行分析,然后利用计量经济方法着重分析了贸易自由化对国内种植业生产中化肥、农药使用的影响。研究结果表明,在种植业产品的贸易自由化中,进口渗透作用对缓解国内化肥、农药污染影响显著,而出口导向作用影响不明显。文章最后给出了减缓农产品贸易自由化的不利影响,发挥其有利影响的政策建议。

China＇ s accession to WTO brings adjustments and reforms to Chinese agricultural trade related policies, which will on domestic agricultural production, and further on rural ecological environment. The paper presents an econometric analysis of rural environmental impacts of crop trade liberalization after China＇s accession to WTO, especially on chemical inputs change caused by free trade. Firstly, the meaning of crop trade liberalization is explained and the linkages between environment and crop trade liberalization are identified against the background of China＇ s accession to WTO. According to China＇ s accession commitments and rules of WTO, crop trade liberalization mainly means market access of China＇ s food market and adjusting domestic crop-related support policies, which will impact on rural environment through scale effects, structural effects and technology effects. Then, the authors establish an econometric model to analyze environment impacts of crop trade liberalization, with specific focus on chemical inputs, including fertilizers and pesticides. The results indicate that in trade liberalization, import penetration of crops is helpful to decrease domestic chemical inputs obviously, but export orientation impacts on domestic chemical inputs slightly. The results can be explained by China＇ s current foreign trade structure of crop products. Labor intensive products, including fruit and vegetables, are major export crop products, so expansion of crops export has little effect on chemical inputs in domestic crop production. However, land intensive products, including grains, cotton, oil, sugar, are major import crop products, so expansion of crops import is obviously helpful to alleviate environmental pollution caused by chemical inputs. Lastly, two policy suggestions are proposed to harmonize the crop trade liberalization and the environmental protection. The first one is to loose grain import control appropriately on the premise of grain security. More import of land intensive crops will accelerate the environment-friendly transformation of domestic agricultural production structure. The second one is to internalize environmental cost of crop production. Higher cost of environment-unfriendly input may induce farmers to reduce chemical inputs through accepting advanced technology.