基于ARMA模型的中国工伤事故死亡率预测研究

Analysis of time-series forecast for industrial accidents based on ARMA model

文中用ARMA模型,对1974年至2003年全国工业企业事故死亡率进行时间序列分析,用SAS软件检验模型的可行性,并进行预测应用。结果表明,基于ARMA模型的中国工伤事故死亡率的模拟值和真实值较吻合。

Using ARMA model, this paper analysed the enterprise accident death rate from 1974 to 2003 in China and verified the model by SAS.The results show that the related data forecast of industial accidents in China is close to factual value.In application, ARMA model has an important role indecision- making for merchants.