中国工业产值与利润波动的周期特征比较及协整分析

A Cyclical Characteristic Comparison and Cointegration Analysis on Fluctuation of Industrial Production and Industrial Profit in China

文章利用统计学中的周期分析方法和现代计量经济学中的协整分析方法,研究了1977-2003年间我国工业利润和工业产值的周期波动问题,得出了尽管二者的周期波动各有其自身的特点,但二者之间存在着显著的长期动态均衡关系和短期误差修正机制的结论,并认为工业产值指标和工业利润指标各有所长, 应该配合使用。

With the cycle analyses method in statistics and the cointegration analyses method in modem econometrics, this paper studies the industrial production fluctuation and industrial profit fluctuations during 1977-2003, draws a conclusion that though these two cycle fluctuations have different characteristics, there is a remarkable equilibrium long-term relationship and a short-term error correction mechanism between them. The author thinks that the indicators such as industrial production and industrial profit have their own strong points each and should be used corporately.