汇率变动对通货膨胀影响的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on the Impact of Exchange Rate on Inflation

文章通过研究人民币名义有效汇率与消费物价指数之间的协整关系,来分析汇率对物价水平的影响程度,进而研究汇率因素在通货膨胀形成的过程中起到的作用。文章采用了协整理论和向量误差修正模型等经济计量方法,分析的结果表明汇率与物价水平存在着长期的反方向变化趋势,因此不贬值的汇率政策是影响物价下跌的一个因素,但并非是主要因素。

This paper analyzes the Cointegration relation between the nominal effective exchange rate of RMB and the consumer＇ s price index, and find out how much impact the exchange rate has on the forming process of inflation. We use cointegration approach and error correction model, the conclusions indicate that exchange rate and price-level have long-term reverse alteration tendency. So the exchange rate is really one of the factors influencing price＇s falling, but it is not the main factor.