2005年下半年中国经济的走势、问题与对策

Trend, Problems and Solutions of China′s Economy in the Second Half Year of 2005

在2003年底至2004年初国家实施的一系列宏观调控政策的影响之下,我国经济增长现处于增幅减速阶段,但也出现了一些新问题,同时针对经济走势的争论迭起。面对各类错综复杂的新形势,本文结合经济景气指数分析方法,对先行指数、综合预警指数运行轨迹进行观测,在此基础上分析我国2005年下半年宏观经济走势,并提出相应的政策建议。

Starting from the end of 2003, the central government of China has adopted a series of macro policies to regulate the national economy. These policies have been producing desired impacts on China′s economy. However, a few new problems have emerged recently, and debates on trend of China′s economy receives much attention. In this paper, basing on the movements of leading indicators and integrated warning index, we analyze China′s economy in the second half of 2005, discuss the problems and propose some policy suggestions.