基于灰色理论的城市道路交通安全评价研究

Study on Safety Evaluation of Urban Road Traffic Based on Gray Theory

影响城市道路交通安全的指标很多,因此,给评价工作带来一定的难度。结合我国道路交通管理的特点,根据理论与实践相结合的原则,对诸多指标进行选择,筛选出适合我国国情的道路交通安全3项评价指标,并运用累积百分频率法确定了评价标准。在综合分析国内外道路交通安全评价方法的基础上,建立了城市道路交通安全的灰色评价方法。应用灰色系统理论对道路交通安全的3项指标进行归纳和计算,从而判断各城市所属的灰类,更合理地评价各城市的交通安全状况。应用该方法,从宏观角度上对2001年国内五省市的道路交通安全状况进行了事后灰色综合评价,取得较为满意的效果。

A variety of indexes affect the safety evaluation of urban road tragic making the evaluation quite difficult. By integrating the characteristics of road traffic management in China, three indexes are selected, of which the evaluation standard is determined with cumulated percentage frequency. Based on the general analysis of evaluation methods both at home and abroad, the gray evaluation method of urban road traffic safety is established. By applying the gray system theory, three indexes of road traffic safety are induced and calculated to categorize the gray type of cities to more rationally evaluate the situation of traffic safety. Also by this method, the situations of traffic safety in five provinces and cities in 2001 are comprehensively evaluated.