摘要
A simple statistical method is used to estimate the size and timing of maximum amplitude of the next solar cycle （cycle 24）. Presuming cycle 23 to be a short cycle （as is more likely）, the minimum of cycle 24 should occur about December 2006 （±2 months） and the maximum, around March 2011 （±9 months）, and the amplitude is 189.9 ± 15.5, if it is a fast riser, or about 136, if it is a slow riser. If we presume cycle 23 to be a long cycle （as is less likely）, the minimum of cycle 24 should occur about June 2008 （±2 months） and the maximum, about February 2013 （±8 months） and the maximum will be about 137 or 80, according as the cycle is a fast riser or a slow riser.
A simple statistical method is used to estimate the size and timing of maximum amplitude of the next solar cycle （cycle 24）. Presuming cycle 23 to be a short cycle （as is more likely）, the minimum of cycle 24 should occur about December 2006 （±2 months） and the maximum, around March 2011 （±9 months）, and the amplitude is 189.9 ± 15.5, if it is a fast riser, or about 136, if it is a slow riser. If we presume cycle 23 to be a long cycle （as is less likely）, the minimum of cycle 24 should occur about June 2008 （±2 months） and the maximum, about February 2013 （±8 months） and the maximum will be about 137 or 80, according as the cycle is a fast riser or a slow riser.
