基于概率方法的滑坡稳定性分析

Analysis on the Stability of the Landslide Based on the Probability Method

本文概述了滑坡破坏概率分析的基本原理。以三峡库区的龙王庙滑坡为例,论述了地下水对滑坡的作用,进行了滑坡的破坏概率分析,分析结果表明,该滑坡在库水位骤降初期有较高的破坏概率,必须进行治理。

This paper brief states the basic principle of probability analysis of landslide failure. Taking probability analysis of Longwangmiao landslide in the Three Gorges reservoir area as an example, it discusses the landslide function caused by groundwater, and carried on the analysis for probability of landslide failure. The result indicated that there is a high failure probability while in the initial stage of water level sudden drawdown in the reservoir, which must be control.