一次锋前对流性暴雨的分析与预报

Analysis and Forecast of Prefrontal Convective Storm Rainfall

应用多普勒雷达强度场以及累积雨量、雨强等雷达二次产品对2003年7月13日15时43分发生在新疆昌吉市附近的局地性暴雨进行了分析。分析指出,暴雨51%的雨量由锋前对流风暴单体形成,有35%的雨量为锋面云系前部的对流云产生。对对流风暴单体的形成条件和移动的短时预报方法进行了探讨。

Analysis the local storm occurred near Changji city in Xinjiang at 15：43 in July 13, 2003 by use of second product such as radar intensity field, velocity field, accumulative rainfall and rainfall intensity of Doppler radar. The results showed that 51 per cent of storm rainfall was formed by prefrontal convective storm cell, convective cloud in the front of frontal cloud produced 35 per cent of rainfall. Short-time forecast method of formation condition and movement of convective storm cell was discussed.