黑龙江省未来气候生态与森林的作用研究

The Future Climate Change and its Influences to Forest in Heilongjiang Province

本文在扼要概述全球气候变化背景的基础上，根据近百年气候历史资料以及海温、太阳黑子活动、火山爆发、ＣＯ２浓度变化、Ｏ３浓度变化、大气环流指数特征等因子与我省气修变化的定量与定性关系，分析了各因子的综合影响，预测了我省未来十年气候变化趋势。结果表明：我省未来十年气候以温暖、干旱为主，年际间仍存有波动。虽然总的气候变化趋势与全球变化是一致的，但具有明显的区域特征。同时提出了气候变化可能对森林的影响，初步探讨了应采取的森林对策。

The background of global climate change was briefly summarized in this paper. On the basis of this,the comprehensive effect of various factors lncluding seawater temperature.sunspots activities,volcanic explosion CO 2 concentration change,O 3 concentration change and characteristic of general atmospheric circulation index on the climate change and the tendency of climate change of ten years in future in HeiLongJiang province was predicted according to the quantitative and qualitative relationships among the historical climate data in the past one hundred years, various factors as stated above and climate change of HeiLongJiang province. The results showed: The climate of ten years in future will be mainly warm and dry. There will be still annual fluctuation. Although the general tendency of climate change accords with global climate change, the regional characteristic is also distinct. The probable influence of climatechange on forestry was put forward and the forestry response strategies was elementarily discussed.