世界润滑油生产及供需分析

Analysis of World Lubricating Oil Production Supply and Demand

2004年全球新增和计划新增基础油能力400万吨/年,关闭和减少产能约110万吨/年;企业联合、购并和成立合资企业的活动频繁。虽然由于生产燃料性油品的效益较好,炼制商转产燃料油品,造成基础油料产量下滑,但是润滑油生产的继续扩能和升级将使润滑油市场走向新的平衡。2004年世界成品润滑油需求约为3780万吨。据Freedonia集团公司预测、世界润滑油消费总量的增长主要出现在发展中国家。2003-2008年,全球润滑油需求的年均增长率为2.2%,其中中国为6%、印度、印度尼西亚、饿罗斯、巴西和圣西哥为3.0%-3.5%、西欧、北欧、北美和日本市场需求会出现下滑趋势。发展中国家改进润滑油质量的潜力很大,而发达国家的润滑油需求将更趋向于采用天然气合成油或以高度精制基础油为配方的高质量环保润滑油。预计全球对非常规润滑油需求的年增长率为5.4%,到2008年非常规润滑油在全球市场的份额将超过10%。润滑油质量将不断提高并向高档化方向发展,市场竞争也将更加激烈。

In 2004, the world's newly installed and planned increment of lubricating base oil capacity was 4 million tonnes per year with an annual shutdown and decreased production capacity amounting to 1. 1 million tonnes. Meanwhile, corporate mergers as well as the establishment of new joint ventures were very frequent. The considerabler evenuef rom fuelp roductsl uredr efinerst oc hanget heir business to fuel products, which in return resulted in a decline of lubricatingb aseo ilp roduction. In spite oft hist rend,w itht hea bility tof urthere xpand andu pgradep roductionc apacity,t hel ubricatingo il market will reach a new balance point. The world's total demand for lubricating oil in 2004 was 37.8 million tonnes. According to Freedonia Group's forecast, thec onsumptioni ncrement forl ubricatingo ilm ainly occurs in developing countries. From 2003 to 2008, the world's annual growth rate of demand for lubricating oil will average 2.2%, China's growth rate is 6%, that of India, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil and Mexico is 3.0%_3.5%, while Western Europe, Northern Europe, North America and Japan will have a declining trend. There is great potential for developingc ountriest om akei mprovementsi nl ubricatingo il quality. Meanwhile, demand for lubricating oil in developed countries tend to be more focused on GTL or compound oils with additives and high quality environmental-friendlyl ubrication withf ine lubricatingb ase oila si tsf ormula.T hew orld'sd emandf orn on-conventionall ubricating oil is expected to have an annual growth rate of 5.4%, and by 2008, the market share of non-conventional lubricating oil in the world will exceed 10%. With the continuing improvement and enhancement of lubricating oil quality, market competition will also become fiercer.