原油价格对经济影响的非对称性——文献综述

The Asymmetry of Economic Activity Response to Oil Price Fluctuations: a Survey

原油价格波动对经济影响是非对称性的,即油价的上涨与下跌对宏观经济影响的程度是不一样的,普遍认为油价上涨对经济影响的程度要大于油价下跌对经济的影响程度。为了解释这种非对称性,学术界分别提出了油价的“总量效应”和“分配效应”。“总量效应”主要从总需求和总供给的角度来解释油价波动对经济的影响,主要包括“实际余额效应”、“供给冲击假说”和“收入转移假说”。“分配效应”主要从资源的重新配置角度来解释油价波动对经济的影响,包括“部门转移论”、“调节成本论”和“未来油价不确定论”。两者结合可以从理论上解释油价对经济影响的非对称性。以往关于油价波动对宏观经济的影响方面的研究,基本上针对以美国、英国为代表的工业化国家,对发展中国家的研究甚少。笔者认为,由于世界产业结构的调整,制造业这个高度耗油的产业转移到发展中国家,研究油价波动对单位GDP能耗较高、原油进口依存度较大的发展中国家经济的影响意义更大。

Economic activity responds asymmetrically to oil pricefluctuations.T hat isr ising oilp rices eems tor etard economic activitymore than falling oil prices stimulate it. To explain this asymmetry, economists posed a new theory that oil price shocks affected economic activity through aggregate channels anda llocativec hannels.A ggregate channels explained the asymmetry from the view of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, including the real balance effect, supply-side shocks and income transfers. Allocative channels explained the asymmetry from the view of the re-allocation of resources, including sectoral shifts, adjustment costs and the uncertainty of future oil prices. Aggregate channels combined with allocative channels could explain the asymmetry theoretically. In the past, the research on the response of economic activity to oil price fluctuations focused on the industrializedc ountriess ucha sA mericaa nd Britain .Similar research from the developing countries is very scarce. Nowadays, the manufacturing industry which consumes a lot of oil is shifting to the developingc ountriesb ecauseo ft he adjustmento ft he worldi ndustrial structure. So it is more significant to do the relevant research for the developing countries, which have higher energy consumption per GDP and a larger degree of dependence upon oil imports.