气候变化对天山伊犁河上游河川径流的影响

The Effect of Climate Change on Runoff in the Yili River in the Tianshan Mountains

用水量平衡模型研究气候变化对天山降雪比较丰富的伊犁河上游山区河川径流的影响。研究表明，作为西北干旱区水资源主要形成区的山区，由于气温较低和降水丰富，未来气候变化对水资源量的影响将主要取决于降水量的变化，气温升高的影响相对较小。气候的变暖，一方面使径流的年内分配发生变化，月径流峰值减少，时间提前，春季径流增加，而其余季节径流减少，其中夏季减少最多；另一方面将使年径流量的变率增大，这对水资源的利用极为不利。

The river runoff changes in the Yili River basin are estimated under various future climatic scenarios using the river runoff model based on water balance. Owing to the low air temperature and rich precipitation in the moutains, the impact of future climatic warming on water resources will depend on changes in precipitation rather than rise in air temperature. The future climatic warming would change the distribution and lowerthe peak, of runoff. Runoff peak wwould occur earlier. Spring runoff would increase with a corresponding decrease of runoff in other seasons, particularly in the summer. Considerable change in runoff would occur with climatic warming and variational difference of runoff would increase with the shrinking of glacier area, and this would be unfavorable for the utilizaiton of water resources.