南海区域台风路径数值预报业务模式的研究

PRELIMINARY TEST OF TYPHOON TRACE NUMERICAL PREDICTION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AREA

提出一套解决台风数值预报初始场的方案。构造一个与模式物理过程相协调的人造台风环流，并在此基础上产生人造资料，将人造资料与常规资料混合起来分析，再经过正规模初始化，使模型台风进一步与作者新近研制的有限区域数值预报模式相协调，最后对南海区域台风路径预报作了多方面的敏感性试验．对１９９３、１９９４两年在华南登陆的台风逐一进行预报的结果说明，本模式对华南区域台风的路径完全具有预报能力。

Based on recently modified tropical limited area numerical prediction model (TL10), test of short-term typhoon trace forecast for the South China ho area was implemented. Due to the sparsity of observation sites over oceanic regions, the initial typhoon circulation in analysis field is often nuclear and in the wrong location. We proposed a bogus scheme to represent typhoon circulation which is consistent with parameterization of physical processes in the model. By combining these synthetic observations with surrounding synopic obervation in the objective analysis step,the improvedinitial field is achieved. An of typhoon cases which landed on the coast of South China in 1993 are tested, and the results are competed with those from original numerical prediction system (TL6).