区域增强模式数值预报系统及其性能

ENHANCED REGNAL NUMERICAL PREDICTION SYSTEM AND ITS PERFORMANCE

介绍一个新的中尺度模式业务数值预报系统，即区域增强模式数值预报系统。该系统具有较高的分辨率（水平格距４５ｋｍ，垂直分为１０层），并能在广州区域气象中心现有条件下进行实时业务预报。大量准业务预报试验表明，该系统对影响华南的各类主要天气过程、尤其是台风和前汛期暴雨等过程有较强的预报能力。对１９９３、１９９４、１９９５年所有影响华南的台风过程的预报检验表明，其降水预报评分明显高于国家气象中心降水预报模式等大尺度模式的预报，同时，台风路径的预报误差小于美国、日本等预报中心对各类热带气旋的平均预报误差。对前汛期暴雨和常规天气预报的评分也较高。

During the 'Eighth Five Year Plan', a new operational mesoscale numerical prediction system is developed, which is called the 'Regional Enhanced Numerical Prediction System'. The system possesses higher resolution (45km grid size in horizontal, 10 layers in vertical), as well as full physical processes, and can run operationally in Guangzhou Regional Meteorological Centre (GRMC). A Plenty of experiments indicate that, it shows better performance in predicting various weather systems affec\ting South China, especially the typhoon and heavy rain in the first flood season. Verification to the prediction of all typhoon cases affecting South China in 1993─1995 indicate that, rainfall prediction scores of the system are obviously higher than those of the LAFS in the National Meteorological Centre, and trace prediction error no larger than those of NWPS in main world centres such as the National Huricane Center of NOAA and JMA. The aim of the poper is to give a generalized introduction and analysis to the system and its performance.