摘要
利用１９５１—１９９１年华南（１３个测站②平均）汛期（４—９月）降水量资料分析了汛期旱涝变化特征，提出了旱涝等级标准。采用模糊均生函数模型，根据序列本身的演变规律进行拟合外推，预测了９０年代的旱涝趋势。并利用广州近８３年较长降水序列研究了广州汛期降水的长期变化特征。
Monthly rainfall data in Southern China (13 stations) for the years of 1951─1991 are used to study the characteristics Of drought and floods. criteria of drought and flood grades are statistically determined. And the Fuzzy Mean Generation Function mode is used to forecast the trends of rainfall during 1992─2000.
出处
《热带气象学报》
CSCD
1996年第2期160-166,共7页
Journal of Tropical Meteorology
关键词
华南
汛期
旱涝变化
趋势预测
降水量
Rainy Season in South China Variation Of drought and floods Trend prediction
