摘要
定义了东亚冬、夏季风强度指数,计算了1873～1989年夏季、冬季及其逐月的东亚季风强度指数,研究了冬、夏季风强度指数的长期气候变化。结果表明,100多年来,东亚夏季风明显加强,冬季风变化不大,稍有减弱。突变分析结果表明,1918年前后,东亚夏季风突变增强,与北半球夏季地面气温突变增暖是同步发生的。但是,冬季风不太明显的突变发生于1958年。此外,用滑动相关系数分析了东亚冬夏季风与北半球地面气温的关系,指出它们之间的相关关系有年代际变化。
Defined are East Asian winter/summer monsoon intensity indices and calculated 1873 ～1989 winter/summer and monthly(JJA/DJF)indices with the secular climatic change investi- gated.Evidence suggests that the summer monsoon was greatly enhanced for the study period with little change or even slightly enfeebled for the winter wind.Also,analysis shows that the summer monsoon displayed enhamced sudden change around 1918 concurrently with the abrupt rise in northern summer surface temperature,and,in contrast,the winter monsoon showed less noticeable abrupt change in 1958.Finally,sliding correlation analysis was made to investigate the relation between the winter/summer monsoons and northern surface temperature,indicating an interdecadal variation in their correlation.
出处
《南京气象学院学报》
CSCD
1996年第2期168-177,共10页
Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology
基金
国家自然科学基金49475265
关键词
季风
强度指数
气候变化
东亚地区
East-Asian winter/summer monsoon
abrupt change
intensity index
interdecadal variation
sliding correlation analysis
