我国央行控制货币供给能力的分析

Analysis of money supply control ability of People's Bank of China

本文首先从货币供给过程中的基础货币和货币乘数这两个环节入手,从理论上分析了我国央行对货币供给的控制能力。同时我国正处于社会主义市场经济的发展和转轨阶段,市场经济体制还很不完善,这些特殊国情使得我国的货币供给量更加难以控制。而且在当今金融创新、金融放松管制和全球金融市场一体化的背景之下,各个层次的货币供应量之间的界限更加不易确定,基础货币的扩张系数也失去了以往的稳定性,这又进一步强化了我国货币供给的内生性。通过对上述复杂因素的综合分析,探讨了我国央行对货币供给不可控性的深层次原因。

Through the monetary base and the money- supply multiplier analysis, this article theoretically analyzes the money supply control ability. At the same time the imperfect market economy system of China also makes China more difficult to control the money supply. Moreover under the background of the financial innovation, the relaxes of finance controlling and the whole - world financial market integration, the boundary among money supply quantity of each levels is more difficult to determine, and the expansion coefficient of monetary base has also lost the former stability. This further strengthens the endogenous character of money supply. Through the comprehensive analysis of the complicated factors above, the article discusses the deep reasons why the central bank of China can not control the money supply.