中国油气资源可持续发展的分析

Analysis on Sustainable Development of Petroleum Resource in China

1991年以来我国石油消费快速增长,必须通过各种措施,尽最大努力把2020年石油消费量控制在4.5×108t以内。国内石油必须长期持续稳定生产,预计到2010年我国原油年产量将进入高峰期,达到约1.8×108t,维持到2020年是比较有把握的,如果新区有较大的发现,也可增加至2×108t。近年来,天然气工业发展迅猛,预计到2010年和2020年,天然气年产量将分别达到800×108m3和1200×108m3,加上进口的管道气和液化天然气,可以逐步改善能源结构。要实现这三大目标,保障油气资源可持续发展,就应该大力发展科学技术。

Oil consumption in China has been increasing rapidly since 1991. In order to ensure oil supply security, utmost efforts should be exerted to control the oil consumption within 450 million tons in 2020. The domestic oil production must maintain stable for a long time. It is estimated that crude oil production in China will reach 180 million tons in 2020. indicating the peak production period will arrive, if some great discoveries are made in frontiers, it will also rise to 200 million tons. In recent years, natural gas industry developed rapidly, it is expected that natural gas production will reach 80 billion cubic meters and 120 billion cubic meters in 2010 and 2020 respectively, and plus the overseas pipeline gas and LNG, these will improve energy consumption structure gradually. In order to achieve three targets mentioned above and ensure sustainable development of petroleum resource, technology should be promoted greatly.