河北省小麦白粉病发生程度的中期预测

Middle Term Prediction for the Occurrence Degree of Wheat Powdery Mildew in Hebei Province

根据全省１０个县（市）９ａ的历史资料进行归纳总结，提出小麦白粉病流行结构模型，利用３月下旬至４月中旬的气象因子（降雨量、雨日、平均相对湿度）实况值，用判别分析的方法，对当年小麦白粉病发生程度进行中期预测，经１９９３～１９９４年的应用检验。

The historic data on the occurrence of wheat powdery mildew and weather of 10 counties in Hebei Province from 1984 to 1992 was analyzed The results showed that the occurrence degree of the disease could be predicted in middle period using the method based on the data of rainfall, rain days, average relative humidity from the last 10 days of March to the second 10 days of April of each year The middle term prediction was approved to be true by actual disease occurrence in 1993-1994