中国旱涝巨灾长期预报方法的研究

RESEARCH ON THE LONG - RANGE FORECAST METHODS OF THE CHINESE DROUGHT AND EXCESSIVE RAIN CALAMITIES

文中从影响旱涝巨灾物理机制入手,对巨灾研究采用'立体的、动态的、全方位'的思路和做法,选用1951年～2003年全国受旱涝面积七大流域主要水文站最大洪峰流量同相应的天文、海温、环流特征量等通过微机计算,从2000多万数据中选出6%相关系数大于0.4的数据建立模型图,经分析验证可知:造成我国巨灾旱涝首位是海温,其次是环流特征量;而年月太阳黑子数,日月食是做好超长期预报因子最理想指标;近日点、远日点、立春日期三者三年滑动平均指针是计算预测巨灾旱涝定量值最佳指标.

On the basis of physical mechanisms of the influence on drought and excessive rain calamities, through the solid dynamic and overall thinking and practice, the paper builds a model map by choosing the biggest flood peak flow of station in the seven major river basins during 1951-2003 and the corresponding the astronomy, sea temperature and circulation characteristics volume through computer, and obtains the data of 6% with correlation coefficient beyond 0.4 from 20 millions of data. Through analysis and verification, we know that sea temperature ranks first and circulation characteristics volume comes next in making Chinese drought and excessive rain calamities. The yearly and monthly number of the sunspots and the solar and lunar eclipses are the most ideal targets as far as the long-range forecast factors are concerned： The three years sliding average indicator of perihelion, aphelion and the date of the Beginning of Spring are the best targets of calculating the ration of forecasting drought and excessive rain calamities.