摘要
This paper presents the view that it is not constructive to start the analysis of international payments imbalances from the US current account deficit. It is more informative to start from excess of savings over investment in Asia. This imbalance principally arises because of a fall in the investment ratio rather than a rise in the saving ratio, and traces its origin to the after-effects of the Asian Crisis of 1997/98. In the final section the case of China is addressed, and the view is put forward that the combination of rapid economic growth, a fixed exchange rate and persistent current account surpluses is not sustainable into the medium term, and it is in China＇s domestic interests to adjust its exchange rate. Whether or not this has an appreciable influence on other countries＇ balance of payments positions is of secondary importance.
This paper presents the view that it is not constructive to start the analysis of international payments imbalances from the US current account deficit. It is more informative to start from excess of savings over investment in Asia. This imbalance principally arises because of a fall in the investment ratio rather than a rise in the saving ratio, and traces its origin to the after-effects of the Asian Crisis of 1997/98. In the final section the case of China is addressed, and the view is put forward that the combination of rapid economic growth, a fixed exchange rate and persistent current account surpluses is not sustainable into the medium term, and it is in China＇s domestic interests to adjust its exchange rate. Whether or not this has an appreciable influence on other countries＇ balance of payments positions is of secondary importance.
