摘要
China’s recent declaration of principles on its exchange rate mechanism has made it veryclear that any move should be on China’s own initiative; such a move should be sustainableand under control. China has adopted gradualism in the exchange rate reform process. OnJuly 21st, 2005, China changed Renminbi (RMB) parity (appreciation) by 2 percent, signalingthe exchange market reform process. This paper is to study the past history of the crawling-peg of RMB on the US dollar with a view of its future reform. The flexibility provided by thecrawling-peg still fits well with China’s status quo. However, the flexible mechanism shouldfollow the trend of China’s economic development with well-timed parity changes. Theextent of the fluctuation band rests upon China’s ability to maintain its currency stability tocounter future speculation and shocks. Only when the market mechanism is restored inChina can an equilibrium RMB exchange rate be reached.
China＇s recent declaration of principles on its exchange rate mechanism has made it very clear that any move should be on China＇s own initiative; such a move should be sustainable and under control. China has adopted gradualism in the exchange rate reform process. On July 21st, 2005, China changed Renminbi （RMB） pariy （appreciation） by 2 percent, signaling the exchange market reform process. This paper is to study the past history of the crawling-peg of RMB on the US dollar with a view of its future reform. The flexibility provided by the crawling-peg still fits well with China＇s status quo. However, the flexible mechanism should follow the trend of China＇s economic development with well-timed parity changes. The extent of the fluctuation band rests upon China＇s ability to maintain its currency stability to counter future speculation and shocks. Only when the market mechanism is restored in China can an equilibrium RMB exchange rate be reached.
基金
This study is financed by the project of National Natural Science Foundation of China.
