美元汇率变动对中国经济影响分析

Effects of Changes in US Dollar Exchange Rate on Chinese Macroeconomy

美元汇率变动是影响中国经济发展的一个重要外部原因。由于2005年之前人民币实施的是钉住美元的固定汇率制度,美元贬值加大了人民币升值的压力,使得货币政策陷于两难境地。实证分析表明,美元汇率变动对中国进出口、利用外资、物价水平和就业具有明显的影响。2005年美元汇率升值,中国贸易收支顺差将缩小。美元企稳将促进中国稳定利用外资,并对抑制国内生产资料价格上涨将起到积极的作用,从而有利于我国的宏观经济调控。但今年美元的升值走势将不利于我国就业状况的改善。

US dollar depreciation is one of factors resulting in China＇s overheated economy during 2001-2004. The depreciation of US dollar exerts pressure on pushing RMB exchange rate to rise because of the fixed exchange rate system, which leads to dilemma in carrying out our monetary policy. Through positive analysis, we see that Chinese macro-economy have been influenced obviously by changes in US dollar exchange rate, such as exports and imports, foreign direct investment, general price level, and our employment. In 2005, the appreciation of US dollar will help to reduce Chinas trade surplus and capital ＆ financial account surplus, check internal producer price, and help Chinese government to manage our macro-economy, especially to implement monetary policy. However, the appreciation of US dollar this year will increase unemployment in some industries in China.