几种作物产量预测模型及其特点分析

Analysis on Some Forecasting Models for Crop Yields and Their Characteristics

作物产量预测是农业科学研究的一个重要内容,是农业决策的重要依据,不少学者进行了大量研究并建立了许多预测模型。简述了常用的GM(1.1)灰色预测模型、趋势—随机预测模型、神经网络预测模型和组合预测模型的原理、方法,并就应用情况及其特点进行了简要评价,为人们的选择性使用提供依据。

Crop yield forecasting is an important field of agricultural scientific research and provides an important base for agricultural decision. Many forecasting models have been put forward and set up. The principles and methods of four forecasting models, however, including grey dynamic model, trend - state mathe-matical model, neural net forecasting model and composing forecasting model are introduced concisely, and their application and characteristics are analyzed preliminarily.