股票内在价值的区间估计

INTERVAL ESTIMATION OF STOCK′S INHERENT VALUE

传统的股票内在价值模型由于其固有的一些缺陷,易使投资者在应用此模型对所投资股票进行价值评估时出现高估现象.本文应用马尔科夫链对市场利率的走势进行预测,并以长期债券收益率的预测值作为贴现率建立了股票价值期望值区间估计模型,从而使投资者掌握更多的信息,能够更全面地作出投资决策.

Investors tend to estimate the stock value higher than it actually is. This is attributed to the application of the traditional stock value model which has quite a few inherent shortcomings. In this paper, a model of interval estimation of the stock＇s inherent value is constructed by using a Markov chain to predict the trend of the treasury bonds＇ yield and taking the predicted yield as the discount rate. Thus ,more information can be provided for investors ,which will offer them great help to make investment decisions upon more comprehensive considerations.