组合预测方法在电力系统负荷预测中的应用

Application of Combination Forecast Method to Electric Load Forecasting for Power System

组合预测方法是一种性能优越的预测方法.应用最优组合预测和递归等权组合预测方法将自适应滤波模型、灰色模型、指数平滑模型组合在一起进行电网负荷预测,获得了好的预测效果.

Combination forecast method is a kind of forecast method with excellent property. The optimum combination forecast model and the equivalent weight recurrence combination forecast model are used for forecasting electric load of power system. The adaptive filter model, the grey model and the exponentially weighted moving average model are combined into combination forecast models to forecast electric load of power system. The forecasting result shows that the combination forecast method could get better result than any single model.