日本经济的增长与波动

The Growth and Fluctuations of Japan's Economy

以经济增长率为考察指标,按照“谷-谷”法划分,1951-2002年的52年中,日本经济增长与波动呈现出11个周期,并且可明显地划分为三个阶段:高速增长期、平稳增长期和“失去的10年”或低速增长阶段,即出现了两次大的转折。运用增长会计的方法,从生产要素投入的供给面可以解释这两次大的转折:是由于劳动、资本、全要素生产率对经济增长的贡献度下降,导致了经济增长的两次大的转折。

With economic growth rate as the main indicator and measured by the “trough-to-trough” method, eleven growth and fluctuation cycles can be observed in the economy of Japan in the fifty-two years from 1951 to 2002, which can be grouped into three distinctive phases, namely, the boom period, the steady growth period and the “lost ten years” or low-speed growth period, when two major transitions occurred. These two major transitions can be interpreted by the growth accounting method from the angle of production supply factor, that is, these two major transitions in Japan＇s economic growth were caused by the decrease of labor, capital and total factor productivity＇s contribution rate to the growth of economy.