构建石油金融体系:中国石油安全的战略选择

Construction of China's Petroleum Financial System: Strategic Option to Address Oil Security of China

目前,中国已进入重化工业阶段,是完成工业化过程的关键时期,作为“工业血液”的石油无疑已成为事关全局的战略资源。2004年以来,国际石油价格大幅上涨。同时,中国石油消费和需求增长强劲,国内石油供给严重短缺,对外依存度高达40%以上。综观当前石油市场的形势,世界并不缺油。因此,中国石油安全的真正问题并不是供给不足,而是国际市场上的价格风险。而国际石油市场的发展趋势是石油与金融的联系日益紧密,期货价格已成为国际石油价格的重要基准,金融已成为国际石油价格的重要影响因素。要确保国家的石油安全,中国迫切需要把建立石油金融体系提高到战略的高度,以加强在国际石油市场上的话语权,合理规避石油价格风险,维持中国经济的持续发展。为此,中国应该建立有关石油的货币金融政策、建立石油产业发展基金、建立和做大石油衍生品市场。

At present time, China has been in the key phase of industrialization. As life-blood of industry, petroleum has come into being strategic resources, which concerns the whole situation. A investigating situation of oil markets showed the consumption and demand of petroleum in China increased largely in 2004. On the other hand, the oil price on international markets also increased largely, pushing the cost of import of China. Calculate at average price, China paid additional bill nearly to the amount of 90 × 10^8 S for the oil import. Because of the pricing mechanism, the oil price in domestic markets did not reflect the factors of demand and supply in china. The pricing of domestic petroleum markets was just trace the change of the price in international oil markets passively, and China could not exert any pricing power correspond to her position of the second biggest country in oil consumption and demand. Moreover, by reason of the delay of price adjustment, some strange phenomena such as “suspending between wholesale price and retail price” appeared in the product oil markets in China. Considering only domestic resources in China, there is a great shortage of supply of petroleum. Taking the worldwide resources into consideration, however, there is no shortage. If we have foreign exchange enough, there is no risk of supply interruption. Therefore the critical issue of Chinese oil security is not the interruption in supply, but the price risk in the oil markets, that is to say the key is cost to spend to buy oil from the international oil markets. In modern international economy, the relation between finance and oil is tighter and tighter. Oil futures markets have become an essential part of the whole oil markets and futures prices are the most important pricing benchmark in international oil markets. To ensure Chinese oil security, this paper suggests it is argent for China to take the construction of petroleum financial system as state strategy, as to win and strengthen pricing power, to arbitrage price risk, and to maintain sustained economic development of China. Therefore, China should draw financial policy concerned petroleum, set up development fund for oil industry, and promote the development of oil derivatives markets.