区域农户农地流转意愿差异及其驱动力研究——以上海市、南京市、泰州市、扬州市农户调查为例

Regional Difference and Influencing Factors of Farm Households' Willingness of Rural Land Transmission:A Case Study of Shanghai,Nanjing,Taizhou and Yangzhou Cities in Yangtze-Delta Region

研究农户农地流转意愿对科学合理的促进农地流转、提高政府的执政能力、建立农村和谐社会都极具现实意义。本文依据对长江三角洲地区4市7镇319份实地随机抽样样本,采用Logistic模型对影响农户农地流转意愿的因子进行定量分析,结果表明非农就业率、家庭最高受教育水平、单位面积农业纯收益、家庭与等级公路的距离、家庭恩格尔系数、地区经济发展水平、农户户口所在地等因子对农户流转参与意愿起着决定性的作用,而处在不同经济发展水平的上海、南京、泰州、扬州,起决定作用的影响因子的排序有所不同。由于微观单一经济因子对宏观经济发展具有乘数效应,因此,基于各地农户农地流转意愿决定因子的差异,针对各自影响力最大的因子,采取措施,可以激发农户农地流转的愿望,从而产生流转的行为。研究通过数学模型对农户农地流转意愿进行了全面分析,以期为农地市场发育的定性研究提供量化的依据和支持。

The development of rural land market has greatly influenced the macro-economy of China. It is necessary to give some rational and feasible suggestions for the local governments along with the commencement of another round of innovation of land use system, so that they can perfect the rural land transfer market. The author makes a typical analysis of the operation of the land market at farm household level in Yangtze-delta region based on the questionnaire in the Shanghai, Nanjing, Taizhou and Yangzhou to understand the regional differentia and the influencing factors of farm households＇ will to transfer rural land more scientifically. The fieldwork of questionnaires of 319 farm households＇ will has been held in seven administrative villages distributed in four cities. A model was established to analyze the regional differentia and the influencing factors of farm households＇ will during rural land transfer based on the feedbacks of the questionnaires. It shows that there are seven factors including the ratio of non-agriculture population to total population in a family, the highest education level in the family, agricultural pure income per square, the distance from home to main road, family＇s Engel coefficient, regional economic development level, and registered permanent residence locus. The most important factor influencing the farm households＇ will to transfer rural land is different in different cities： it is the ratio of non-agriculture population to total population in a family in Shanghai and Yangzhou, family＇s Engel coefficient in Nanjing, and agricultural pure income per area in Taizhou. A single microeconomic factor will have multiplier effect on macro-economy. The author considers that the will of farm households＇ rural land transfer will be activated and the rural land transfer market led by market economy in Yangtze-delta region will be perfected gradually, only when the rational and feasible measures based on the local rural land transfer market are carried out.