1978年～2003年中国生态足迹动态分析

Dynamics of Ecological Footprint of China from 1978 to 2003

生态足迹是分析国家或地区自然资源可持续利用的重要指标.本文利用FAO数据、中国统计年鉴等自然资源生产与消费数据、人口数据,采用可变世界单产法计算了1978年～2003年中国生态足迹.结果表明,在研究时段内中国人均生态足迹由0.873ghm2升至1.547ghm2,增长率为77.2%;其中,耕地足迹下降0.051ghm2,能源足迹增长0.450ghm2,草地足迹增长0.103ghm2,林地足迹增长0.087ghm2,海水和淡水渔业足迹分别增长0.067ghm2和0.014ghm2,水电用地足迹增长0.005ghm2.与同期不断增加的生物供给力相比较,计算出中国生态赤字在逐年加剧,人均赤字由0.371ghm2上升至0.817ghm2,其中耕地由赤字(0.058ghm2)转为略有剩余(0.028ghm2),草地处于剩余状态,林地由剩余(0.007ghm2)转为赤字(0.095ghm2),中国化石能源足迹逐年增加,进一步加剧了林地短缺的危机,淡水和海水渔业足迹与供给力基本持平.分析了中国各类土地生态足迹、生物供给力和生态盈亏变化的原因,阐明了生态足迹与经济发展、资源经济产出率、资源利用效率之间的关系,指出了中国潜在的土地危机,针对生态足迹及生态赤字的影响因素,提出解决中国生态赤字加剧问题的对策.

Ecological footprint is an important indicator to analyze the sustainable use of natural resources and has been widely used in the assessment on sustainable development worldwide. In this study, we got the data of resources production and consumption, population, and land use from FAO database, China Statistical Yearbook, China Energy Statistical Yearbook and the Ministry of Land and Resources. We calculated the ecological footprint of China during the period from 1978 to 2003 with the method of variable world average yield. The results are as follows： the ecological footprint has grown from 0.873ghm^2/cap to 1.547ghm^2/cap with the increase rate of 77.2%; the footprint of cropland has decreased 0.051ghm^2/cap; the footprint of energy has increased 0.450ghm^2/cap; the footprints of fresh water and sea water have increased 0.014ghm^2/cap and 0.067ghm^2/cap respectively; the footprint of forest land has increased 0.087ghm^2/cap; the footprint of grassland has increased 0. 104ghm^2/cap; and the footprint of hydro has increased 0.005ghm^2/cap. We find that the ecological deficit has been more and more serious, which is from 0.371ghm^2/cap in 1978 to 0. 817ghm^2/cap in 2003, through comparing the ecological footprint with the increasing biological capacity of the same period. The cropland was in the state of ecological deficit in 1978 （0.058ghm^2/cap） and changed into the state of ecological surplus （0.028ghm^2/cap） in 2003 ,while the grassland was also in the state of ecological surplus. The forestland was in a state of ecological surplus （0.007ghm^2 ） and changed into a state of ecological deficit （0.095ghm^2/cap） ; and the ecological deficit became more serious when the fossil energy footprint was taken into consideration. For the inland fishery and ocean fishery, the footprint was similar to the biocapacity, with a little ecological surplus. We analyze the reasons for the changes of ecological footprint, biocapacity and ecological deficit according to the results above and discuss the relationship between ecological footprint, economic development and utilization efficiency of resources. We consider that the land resources will be lacking along with the economic development and rapid urbanization in China. We provide the strategies to resolve the problems, such as increasing the productivity of grassland and forest land, promoting the structure of energy consumption, decreasing the use of fossil energy, increasing the utilization efficiency of resources, controlling the population and changing the economic increasing modes through the analysis of the influencing factors of ecological footprint and ecological deficit.