LPG蒸气云爆炸风险评估中的参数不确定性分析

Parameter uncertainty analysis of LPG vapour cloud explosion risk assessment

分析了液化石油气的危险特性及其事故性爆炸的主要特点,针对蒸气云爆炸定量风险评估中不确定因素无法精确确定而导致的结果不确定性问题,即蒸气云爆炸事故造成的危害存在不确定性,建立了蒸气云爆炸风险评估模型,提出了一种基于Monte Carlo模拟的不确定性处理方法,计算了LPG蒸气云爆炸波伤害范围和事故风险概率曲线,对于定量评估VCE事故风险具有重要意义。

Major hazards and LPG characters of explosion were analyzed. Considered that some uncertain factors of VCE quantitative risk assessment can not be confirmed ,then the hazarcl result from VCE accident might be uncertain. A risk assessment model of VCE was developed and based on MC simulation, uncertainty analysis method was proposed. The method has been expatiated with the accident cases. Hurting scope of LPG VCE wave and accident risk probability curve, on which analysis has significance to assess VCE accident quantitatively, have been computed.