灰色GM(1∶1)模型在定西县粮食产量预测中的应用

Application of gray model in forecasting of crop yields in Dingxi county

以7年为一周期对定西县43年粮食产量进行平滑处理,消除了不确定因素的影响,建立了定西县1958～2000年粮食平均产量的GM(1∶1)灰色模型,并应用该模型对定西县粮食生产变化趋势做了预测,结果表明:1999～2006年和2007～2013年两个周期中定西县粮食产量预测值分别为:1 719 kg/hm2和2 229 kg/hm2.

To eliminate the effect of indefined factors, the 43 years crop yields were carried out smooth treatment by 7 years period,the GM（1 ： 1） module of crop yield was established by using crop yields from 1958 to 2000 in Dingxi county,and the module was proved accurate and credible. The trend of production was predicted by GM（1 ： 1） module. The predicted crop yields in two periods, 1999-2006 and 2007-2013,were 1 719 kg/hm^2 and 2 229 kg/hm^2 respectively.