山东省人口老龄化空间分异及其形成机制研究

Study on Spatial Disparity and Forming mechanism of Shandong Population Aging

研究人口老龄化的区域差异及解释其成因,对合理制定人口发展战略具有重要意义。本文从时空角度探讨山东省人口老龄化进程,构造模型分析老龄化空间分异变动的制约因素,采用两种分布比较方法定量研究各制约因素的影响程度,最终揭示老龄化程度区域差异扩大的动力机制。结果表明,山东省老年人口比重出现极化现象的主要原因在于人口自身的惯性作用,包括人口年龄结构和出生率的共同作用,此外还受到经济社会诸多因素的制约。

It is important to study the temporal and spatial of aging for constituting the logical population strategy. The article discussed the temporal and spatial of Shandong＇s aging and aimed at finding the which conduced to the polarization of Shandong＇s aging. The conclusion is that the main factor is the inertia of population development oneself. Furthermore, the economic and social condition accelerates the polarization.