供水水库优化模拟风险调度模式的研究

Study on optimized and simulated risk operation mode for water supply reservoir

针对水库调度过程中的风险问题,引入了供水水库调度的优化模拟风险管理模式。首先建立了供水水库群的优化调度模型,然后对度量风险的可靠性、脆弱性、回弹性、事故周期等指标作了论述。在此基础上,模拟水库调度过程中存在的风险,并通过模拟与优化的反馈机制,建立了供水水库优化模拟风险调度的总体模式。

So far as the risk during the operation of reservoir is concerned, the optimized and simulated risk management mode for water supply reservoir is introduced herein; in which the optimal operation model for a group of water supply reservoirs is developed at first, and then the indexes for the risk estimation, such as reliability, frangibility, resiliency and the accident periods etc. are discussed. On the basis of this, the possible risks during the operation of reservoir are simulated, and furthermore, the general optimized and simulated risk operation mode for the reservoir is established based on the feedback mechanism of the simulation and the optimization concerned.