中国经济的内部平衡与外部平衡——从国民收入账户分析中国的贸易平衡

Internal and External Balance of China's Economy——An analysis of China's Trade Balance from the view of National Income Accounting

从国民收入账户的角度,围绕宏观经济的内部平衡与外部平衡问题,分析中国贸易平衡的成因及其内、外部影响,并用计量方法进行实证。结果表明:从世界各国的情况看,平均消费倾向与贸易平衡存在明显的负相关性;中国的贸易平衡状况则与其低消费、高投资的内部平衡状况密切相关,这种内、外部平衡关系的模式存在着较大的风险,缺乏一定的持续性。基于这些分析结果,提出了若干针对性的政策建议。

From the view of national income accounting, the paper analyses the formation and impacts of China's trade balance situation, with driving much attention on internal and external balances of macro economy. Then, an empirical study is made to validate. The results show that (1) all over the world, the average proportion of consumption in GDP has an explicit negative correlation with the trade balance; (2) in China, the trade balance has close relation with internal economy that is characterized by low consumption and high investment. However, high risks may be derived from this development pattern, and therefore some effective measures should be taken to boost consumption for keeping economic development.